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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
V-Tune · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chen
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Iceberg · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 6 games
50%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
441 picks · 193 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 576 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 880 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
284 picks · 393 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:55
Natus Vincere 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 53:30.
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Natus Vincere 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:59.
Game 3prediction correct12:23
Natus Vincere 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 34:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 61%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3