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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 192 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 566 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 863 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 232 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 393 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
278 picks · 381 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:20
HellRaisers 63%AS Monaco Gambit 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 36:45.
Game 2prediction missed10:4
HellRaisers 63%AS Monaco Gambit 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 19:46.
Game 3prediction missed12:18
HellRaisers 63%AS Monaco Gambit 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 29:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 63%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3