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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 22 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 13 games
46%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 11 games
45%

Infinity Esports

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Nuages · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
100%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Benny · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 192 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 565 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 860 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 230 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 392 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
277 picks · 379 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:22
NoPing VPN 75%Infinity Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 29:45.
Game 2prediction correct24:8
NoPing VPN 75%Infinity Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 23:52.
Game 3prediction missed33:24
NoPing VPN 75%Infinity Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 33:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 75%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3