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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
V-Tune · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chen
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Iceberg · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
50%

EXTREMUM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 18 games
39%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 14 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
54%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 13 games
15%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 191 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 564 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 859 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 230 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 392 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
276 picks · 378 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
Natus Vincere 58%EXTREMUM 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNo[o]ne
59% · 53 games50% · 28 games
BroodmotherBlizzy
Broodmother
Monkey King
Monkey KingV-Tune
46% · 38 games47% · 42 games
LunaNefrit
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRAMZES666
48% · 63 games49% · 76 games
Leshracmellojul
Leshrac
Dark Willow
Dark WillowRodjER
53% · 44 games50% · 30 games
HoodwinkG
Hoodwink
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSoNNeikO
55% · 74 games44% · 96 games
ClockwerkChuvash
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Natus Vincere 58%EXTREMUM 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidV-Tune
54% · 55 games39% · 78 games
Linamellojul
Lina
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
59% · 55 games48% · 20 games
Drow RangerNefrit
Drow Ranger
Axe
AxeRAMZES666
54% · 64 games51% · 80 games
TimbersawBlizzy
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkRodjER
43% · 24 games46% · 93 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
52% · 104 games53% · 31 game
DisruptorG
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2