The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
430 picks · 191 bans
Mars
388 picks · 564 bans
Puck
384 picks · 861 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 322 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 230 bans
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 392 bans
Ancient Apparition
276 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total69% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:19
PuckChamp 69%Team Unique 31%
The model gave 69% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 47:49.
Game 2prediction missed16:25
PuckChamp 69%Team Unique 31%
The model gave 69% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 41:23.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 69%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2