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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoTechies

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
11%
Lion
Lion
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
29%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Solo · 6 games
17%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DkFogas · 6 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
DkFogas · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Solo · 5 games
40%

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
31%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 11 games
27%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 9 games
44%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
78%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Duster · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 191 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 562 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 862 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 322 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
318 picks · 230 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 391 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
275 picks · 371 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:37
NoTechies 47%B8 Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 54:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckEgor
50% · 179 games40% · 72 games
LunaWatson
Luna
Spectre
Spectrelayme
41% · 55 games58% · 109 games
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
38% · 28 games54% · 118 games
LeshracDendi
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawDkFogas
56% · 101 game54% · 160 games
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionSolo
42% · 165 games59% · 69 games
Winter Wyvernnofear
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct10:28
NoTechies 46%B8 Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 26:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinEgor
46% · 61 game52% · 42 games
Phantom LancerWatson
Phantom Lancer
Juggernaut
Juggernautlayme
57% · 61 game54% · 59 games
InvokerDendi
Invoker
Pudge
PudgeDkFogas
little data52% · 55 games
MagnusLimitless
Magnus
Lion
Lionxsvampire
46% · 109 games49% · 111 games
Enchantressnofear
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSolo
42% · 98 games57% · 62 games
Winter Wyvern[T]SA
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 52%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2