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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
83%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 14 games
79%

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 17 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 191 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 562 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 862 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 322 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
318 picks · 230 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 391 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
275 picks · 371 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Team Spirit 64%Winstrike Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
43% · 35 games60% · 50 games
Templar Assassinre1bl
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 45 games48% · 70 games
Ursadyrachyo
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCollapse
48% · 63 games53% · 95 games
Miranayamich
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
54% · 119 games43% · 33 games
Axechshrct
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
43% · 31 game52% · 45 games
Winter WyvernPanto
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct25:14
Team Spirit 66%Winstrike Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
53% · 46 games47% · 51 game
Doomre1bl
Doom
Tiny
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 91 game50% · 24 games
Spectredyrachyo
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
47% · 53 games57% · 80 games
Dragon Knightchshrct
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
49% · 70 games49% · 165 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
48% · 115 games47% · 55 games
Winter WyvernPanto
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2