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INVie · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Unknownwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

Mars
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
50%

SG e-sports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 191 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 562 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 862 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 322 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
318 picks · 229 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 391 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
274 picks · 370 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% SG e-sports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
Team Unknown 49%SG e-sports 51%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 32:56.
Game 2prediction correct18:35
Team Unknown 49%SG e-sports 51%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 33:22.
Game 3prediction correct26:14
Team Unknown 49%SG e-sports 51%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 32:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 51%
Series resultTeam Unknown 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3