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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
79%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 23 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
68%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 25 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
598 picks · 931 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 422 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 941 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 653 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:23
Team Falcons 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
51% · 253 games46% · 267 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
45% · 446 games54% · 292 games
BristlebackNiku
Bristleback
Chen
ChenSneyking
62% · 204 games52% · 373 games
Batriderpma
Batrider
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 405 games44% · 409 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
49% · 370 games50% · 337 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1