INVie · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamousloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 13 games
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Dark Willow
Yor · 8 games
Earth Spirit
Pamplona · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
425 picks · 191 bans
Mars
388 picks · 561 bans
Puck
383 picks · 864 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 322 bans
Tiny
317 picks · 229 bans
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 391 bans
Ancient Apparition
273 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
SG e-sports 38%Infamous 62%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 36:35.
Game 2prediction correct14:25
SG e-sports 38%Infamous 62%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 41:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 62%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2