INVie · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Unknownwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 8 games
Snapfire
Wij · 8 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 194 bans
Mars
389 picks · 569 bans
Puck
383 picks · 869 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
Tiny
317 picks · 230 bans
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 391 bans
Ancient Apparition
273 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% SG e-sports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 54%
Series resultTeam Unknown 1:2
Series predictionmissed