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UPEA Ukrainian Cup 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 3 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
33%

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 8 games
38%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
29%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 5 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Shisui · 5 games
40%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
424 picks · 195 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 571 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 874 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 205 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 328 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 230 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 390 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
272 picks · 369 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
V-Gaming 52%Cascade Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
41% · 32 games46% · 58 games
Faceless Void7jesu
Faceless Void
Viper
ViperhAze
57% · 36 games56% · 39 games
WindrangerShisui
Windranger
Slardar
Slardarlaise
56% · 19 games50% · 65 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionArrOw
45% · 86 games54% · 37 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMalady
53% · 26 games
Game 2prediction missed32:37
V-Gaming 52%Cascade Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckhAze
52% · 98 games53% · 20 games
Sven7jesu
Sven
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
56% · 50 games53% · 113 games
LeshracShisui
Leshrac
Pangolier
Pangolierlaise
47% · 54 games45% · 123 games
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Lion
LionArrOw
45% · 104 games55% · 67 games
Winter WyvernKidaro
Winter Wyvern
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
36% · 17 games
Game 3prediction correct50:31
V-Gaming 52%Cascade Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 54:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingTA2000
53% · 147 games41% · 42 games
Sven7jesu
Sven
Mars
Marslaise
47% · 183 games44% · 303 games
PuckShisui
Puck
Tiny
TinyhAze
47% · 125 games56% · 143 games
MiranaKaori
Mirana
Rubick
RubickArrOw
41% · 94 games54% · 135 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMalady
62% · 74 games
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 53%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3