ESL One Summer 2021 · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 2:3series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:3
T1win 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 11 games
Oraclesignature
1ls · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 10 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Marsoften banned
DM · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
420 picks · 195 bans
Mars
386 picks · 571 bans
Puck
380 picks · 871 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 326 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 230 bans
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 389 bans
Ancient Apparition
272 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:24
Virtus.pro 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by T1 in 31:00.
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Virtus.pro 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:35.
Game 3prediction correct32:9
Virtus.pro 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:08.
Game 4prediction missed20:28
Virtus.pro 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by T1 in 42:56.
Game 5prediction missed16:20
Virtus.pro 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by T1 in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 59%
Series resultT1 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5