INVie · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EgoBoysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
418 picks · 196 bans
Mars
387 picks · 573 bans
Puck
383 picks · 878 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 328 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 387 bans
Ancient Apparition
270 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:46
SG e-sports 56%EgoBoys 44%
The model gave 56% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 1:00:33.
Game 2prediction missed11:32
SG e-sports 56%EgoBoys 44%
The model gave 56% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 33:19.
Game 3prediction missed47:13
SG e-sports 56%EgoBoys 44%
The model gave 56% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 33:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 56%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3