BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 43 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
596 picks · 931 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 422 bans
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 640 bans
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 939 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 653 bans
Mars
385 picks · 530 bans
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:19
Team Spirit 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 15:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordCollapse
LeshracMidOne
Shadow FiendMirele
Dragon KnightCrystallis
SlarkYatoro
BrewmasterBOOM
Tuskrue
ChenSeleri
JakiroPanto
Ringmasteryamich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultMOUZ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1