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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 29 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
416 picks · 197 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 582 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 888 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 329 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 232 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 386 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
267 picks · 356 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
AS Monaco Gambit 21%ViKin.gg 79%
The model gave 79% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 46:17.
Game 2prediction correct0:17
AS Monaco Gambit 21%ViKin.gg 79%
The model gave 79% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 30:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 79%
Series resultViKin.gg 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2