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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
90%

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Topson · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 6 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 6 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
n0tail · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
416 picks · 197 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 582 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 888 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 329 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 232 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 386 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
267 picks · 356 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Nigma Galaxy 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageiLTW
40% · 48 games51% · 59 games
MedusaSumaiL
Medusa
Invoker
InvokerMiracle-
56% · 81 game53% · 15 games
BrewmasterCeb
Brewmaster
Axe
AxeMinD_ContRoL
48% · 61 game52% · 104 games
Void SpiritTopson
Void Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKuroKy
50% · 29 games53% · 120 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Rubick
RubickGH
50% · 148 games47% · 69 games
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed8:36
Nigma Galaxy 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaiLTW
50% · 26 games38% · 25 games
Drow RangerSumaiL
Drow Ranger
Invoker
InvokerMiracle-
61% · 43 games37% · 36 games
AxeCeb
Axe
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
58% · 59 games43% · 18 games
HoodwinkTopson
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
59% · 55 games51% · 75 games
MiranaSaksa
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKuroKy
58% · 51 game37% · 80 games
Oraclen0tail
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed43:33
Nigma Galaxy 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMiracle-
48% · 73 games68% · 32 games
MedusaSumaiL
Medusa
Axe
AxeiLTW
44% · 59 games51% · 53 games
TimbersawCeb
Timbersaw
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
49% · 47 games46% · 14 games
HoodwinkTopson
Hoodwink
Sand King
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
44% · 59 games48% · 28 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Undying
UndyingKuroKy
51% · 52 games51% · 163 games
Marsn0tail
Mars
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 67%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3