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UPEA Ukrainian Cup 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Trident Clanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 11 games
45%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
29%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
20%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Shisui · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
25%

Trident Clan

Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
SoulEater · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
415 picks · 197 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 583 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 886 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 331 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 231 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 386 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
265 picks · 355 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 20%
Hero pool strength51% Trident Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Cascade Esports 60%Trident Clan 40%
The model gave 60% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 51:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lion
LionKaori
49% · 241 game57% · 86 games
Ancient ApparitionSquad1x
Ancient Apparition
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
59% · 28 games49% · 22 games
SpectreMunkushi~
Spectre
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage7jesu
47% · 27 games48% · 56 games
Dark WillowSoulEater
Dark Willow
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritShisui
39% · 76 games50% · 177 games
PucksQreen
Puck
60% · 31 game
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Game 2prediction missed29:40
Cascade Esports 61%Trident Clan 39%
The model gave 61% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Trident Clan in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage7jesu
38% · 25 games48% · 19 games
SpectreMunkushi~
Spectre
Morphling
MorphlingShisui
47% · 68 games49% · 30 games
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaKaori
56% · 88 games56% · 79 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
52% · 20 games50% · 59 games
Nyx AssassinSoulEater
Nyx Assassin
41% · 14 games
HoodwinksQreen
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct38:11
Cascade Esports 61%Trident Clan 39%
The model gave 61% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void7jesu
52% · 62 games50% · 78 games
Wraith KingMunkushi~
Wraith King
Leshrac
LeshracShisui
42% · 79 games47% · 53 games
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
47% · 98 games37% · 15 games
VenomancerCorrupted
Venomancer
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
55% · 36 games56% · 74 games
Earth SpiritSoulEater
Earth Spirit
61% · 55 games
Ancient ApparitionsQreen
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 69%
Series resultCascade Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3