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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 6 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
n0tail · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
n0tail · 6 games
17%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
33%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 11 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 201 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 585 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 895 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 203 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 335 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 384 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
262 picks · 348 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
OG 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSumaiL
61% · 15 games48% · 35 games
Broodmotherqojqva
Broodmother
Puck
PuckTopson
50% · 192 games56% · 53 games
RazorIllidan
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawCeb
58% · 85 games48% · 233 games
MarsBoxi
Mars
Lion
LionSaksa
45% · 135 games49% · 32 games
HoodwinkTaiga
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernn0tail
56% · 50 games42% · 124 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed39:26
OG 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSumaiL
59% · 75 games55% · 66 games
Razorqojqva
Razor
Puck
PuckTopson
45% · 219 games48% · 113 games
LeshracIllidan
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
53% · 98 games44% · 63 games
SlardarBoxi
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixSaksa
42% · 102 games50% · 279 games
LioniNSaNiA
Lion
Clockwerk
Clockwerkn0tail
48% · 90 games59% · 63 games
IoTaiga
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2