ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ViKin.ggloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 26 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
407 picks · 199 bans
Mars
389 picks · 587 bans
Puck
380 picks · 893 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 202 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 335 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 384 bans
Ancient Apparition
257 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 75%
Hero pool strength60% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
T1 30%ViKin.gg 70%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 40:13.
Game 2prediction correct19:38
T1 30%ViKin.gg 70%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 45:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 70%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2