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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 20 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 29 games
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
595 picks · 930 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 422 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 639 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 653 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 939 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 654 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 530 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 8
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Tundra Esports 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 55:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
45% · 126 games39% · 241 game
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
54% · 81 game41% · 428 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
54% · 385 games51% · 140 games
KunkkaAce
Kunkka
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
54% · 300 games53% · 118 games
Keeper of the LightBoxi
Keeper of the Light
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
71% · 62 games41% · 27 games
LargotOfu
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1