ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliancewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Pucksignature
Nisha · 10 games
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 7 games
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
406 picks · 200 bans
Mars
393 picks · 591 bans
Puck
383 picks · 902 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 202 bans
Grimstroke
358 picks · 336 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 226 bans
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 383 bans
Ancient Apparition
257 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
Team Secret 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:33.
Game 2prediction correct25:19
Team Secret 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 39:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 50%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2