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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 10 games
40%

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fata · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 8 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Nine · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fata · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 200 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 590 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 900 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 336 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 382 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
256 picks · 343 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:36
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerqojqva
57% · 60 games56% · 55 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightiNSaNiA
34% · 12 games54% · 38 games
Winter WyvernNine
Winter Wyvern
Timbersaw
TimbersawBoxi
57% · 61 game45% · 61 game
Dragon Knight33
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingMiLAN
47% · 48 games53% · 128 games
GrimstrokeSneyking
Grimstroke
Snapfire
SnapfireTaiga
40% · 124 games48% · 23 games
UndyingFata
Undying
Game 2prediction correct16:34
Team Liquid 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeBoxi
45% · 76 games33% · 7 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerqojqva
42% · 20 games49% · 153 games
MarsNine
Mars
Leshrac
LeshraciNSaNiA
42% · 103 games53% · 52 games
Dragon Knight33
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaMiLAN
52% · 92 games53% · 81 game
Ancient ApparitionFata
Ancient Apparition
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
49% · 104 games60% · 102 games
SnapfireSneyking
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2