ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
402 picks · 200 bans
Mars
393 picks · 589 bans
Puck
381 picks · 902 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 203 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 335 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 226 bans
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 382 bans
Ancient Apparition
255 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:17
Alliance 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 43:55.
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Alliance 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 30:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 63%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2