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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

T1

No games played over 6 months.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 212 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 621 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 953 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 203 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 343 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 229 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
263 picks · 195 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
T1 27%Evil Geniuses 73%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 40:16.
Game 2prediction correct38:35
T1 27%Evil Geniuses 73%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 1:04:33.
Game 3prediction correct31:8
T1 27%Evil Geniuses 73%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 73%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3