?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 32 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 24 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%

T1

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
415 picks · 211 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
407 picks · 623 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 958 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 343 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
267 picks · 195 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
LGD Gaming 78%T1 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:49.
Game 2prediction missed30:38
LGD Gaming 78%T1 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by T1 in 47:36.
Game 3prediction correct23:6
LGD Gaming 78%T1 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 78%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3