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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Heroicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
79%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 23 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
68%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 18 games
83%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
596 picks · 929 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 421 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 937 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 651 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 529 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total89% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:20
Team Falcons 73%Heroic 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
42% · 159 games49% · 105 games
Shadow FiendYuma
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
54% · 61 game54% · 45 games
HuskarTaiLung
Huskar
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
51% · 109 games51% · 201 game
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
49% · 81 game50% · 305 games
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 318 games54% · 72 games
UndyingKJ
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 89%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1