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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 15 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
90%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
409 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 626 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 961 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 342 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
268 picks · 199 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:32
Nigma Galaxy 32%Evil Geniuses 68%
The model gave 68% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:54.
Game 2prediction correct16:28
Nigma Galaxy 32%Evil Geniuses 68%
The model gave 68% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 68%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2