?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 31 game
58%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 20 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 25 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
594 picks · 930 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 419 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 937 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 651 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:19
Tundra Esports 63%Natus Vincere 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
46% · 261 game51% · 151 game
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Slark
SlarkPure~
54% · 60 games48% · 327 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Batrider
Batrider33
48% · 271 game50% · 255 games
Marspma
Mars
Marci
MarciAri
51% · 175 games47% · 139 games
ClockwerkRiddys
Clockwerk
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
51% · 149 games57% · 44 games
Treant ProtectorZayac
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1