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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 12 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
90%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 10 games
50%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 31 game
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
74%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 210 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 627 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 961 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
363 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 341 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 382 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
269 picks · 199 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:35
Nigma Galaxy 36%LGD Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMiracle-
50% · 85 games58% · 55 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Spectre
SpectreiLTW
53% · 36 games45% · 295 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
59% · 117 games47% · 80 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickGH
44% · 122 games50% · 86 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Lion
LionKuroKy
51% · 193 games44% · 37 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Game 2prediction missed24:21
Nigma Galaxy 36%LGD Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
50% · 64 games48% · 90 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopteriLTW
49% · 51 game54% · 16 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
55% · 75 games49% · 156 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixKuroKy
52% · 169 games47% · 92 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Io
IoGH
60% · 45 games43% · 50 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Game 3prediction correct13:25
Nigma Galaxy 34%LGD Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeiLTW
48% · 51 game48% · 25 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Broodmother
BroodmotherMinD_ContRoL
47% · 18 games55% · 35 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMiracle-
45% · 55 games56% · 96 games
Death ProphetNothingToSay
Death Prophet
Io
IoGH
60% · 44 games61% · 37 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Oracle
OracleKuroKy
42% · 116 games45% · 91 game
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 76%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3