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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 12 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Boomy · 7 games
57%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 627 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 964 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
363 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 343 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 201 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:36
TNC Predator 31%Evil Geniuses 69%
The model gave 69% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:05.
Game 2prediction missed36:34
TNC Predator 31%Evil Geniuses 69%
The model gave 69% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 51:46.
Game 3prediction correct17:33
TNC Predator 31%Evil Geniuses 69%
The model gave 69% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 56:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 69%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3