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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 19 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 17 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 22 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 213 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 629 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 966 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 345 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 204 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 66%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:16
Vici Gaming 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
53% · 63 games56% · 42 games
SpectreYatoro
Spectre
Doom
DoomELeVeN
52% · 56 games33% · 54 games
LeshracTORONTOTOKYO
Leshrac
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
53% · 77 games53% · 142 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
55% · 166 games47% · 103 games
PhoenixMira
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDy
50% · 50 games43% · 71 game
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed29:8
Vici Gaming 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaOri
52% · 59 games54% · 58 games
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Invoker
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
49% · 138 games43% · 36 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightELeVeN
53% · 87 games52% · 172 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Lina
LinaPyw
56% · 88 games53% · 70 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDy
53% · 102 games36% · 138 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2