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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 22 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 19 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 16 games
69%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 13 games
85%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkMago · 13 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
60%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 213 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 633 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 969 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 345 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 225 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 380 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
274 picks · 205 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:32
NoPing VPN 37%Evil Geniuses 63%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 37:01.
Game 2prediction missed31:25
NoPing VPN 37%Evil Geniuses 63%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 31:36.
Game 3prediction correct10:27
NoPing VPN 37%Evil Geniuses 63%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 28:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 63%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3