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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingwin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
the goal of all life is deathloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud Rising

Puck
Pucksignature
Q7 · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
20%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
60%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yumeyume · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Ice Coke · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Q7 · 4 games
25%

the goal of all life is death

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Summer · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Night · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Marlin · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Summer · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Night · 1 game
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Marlin · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Summer · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Night · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
439 picks · 211 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 309 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 507 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
312 picks · 295 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 511 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
282 picks · 139 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Cloud Rising
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Cloud Rising
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Cloud Rising 52%the goal of all life is death 48%
The model gave 52% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Rising · 52%
Series resultCloud Rising 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1