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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 14 games
79%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 7 games
86%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
1ls · 5 games
80%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 18 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Pyw · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 213 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 633 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 971 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 345 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 225 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 380 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
275 picks · 206 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:37
Virtus.pro 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
55% · 116 games48% · 43 games
Spectrepoyoyo
Spectre
Tiny
TinygpK~
46% · 129 games49% · 81 game
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
54% · 69 games43% · 105 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Lion
LionSave-
52% · 164 games46% · 201 game
GrimstrokePyw
Grimstroke
Elder Titan
Elder Titan1ls
56% · 88 games49% · 136 games
Ancient ApparitionDy
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Virtus.pro 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
49% · 40 games49% · 70 games
Ursapoyoyo
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetgpK~
49% · 209 games46% · 74 games
LinaOri
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
52% · 100 games45% · 170 games
MarsELeVeN
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
54% · 45 games59% · 105 games
PhoenixPyw
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition1ls
53% · 114 games45% · 89 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct16:27
Virtus.pro 48%Vici Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
50% · 68 games55% · 51 game
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
45% · 87 games48% · 99 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
46% · 73 games55% · 65 games
TimbersawELeVeN
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
55% · 33 games49% · 109 games
LionPyw
Lion
Oracle
Oracle1ls
48% · 99 games57% · 36 games
Winter WyvernDy
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 50%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3