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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 11 games
45%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 7 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 214 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 632 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 977 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 347 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 201 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 224 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 380 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
276 picks · 208 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Aster 53%TNC Predator 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeXxs
40% · 52 games50% · 55 games
Templar AssassinArmel
Templar Assassin
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMonet
49% · 67 games55% · 33 games
BristlebackGabbi
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusWhite丶Album
52% · 35 games49% · 116 games
EnchantressBoomy
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaBoBoKa
52% · 106 games46% · 7 games
Night StalkerBok
Night Stalker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLaNm
54% · 41 game50% · 90 games
LionTims
Lion
Game 2prediction missed41:28
Team Aster 54%TNC Predator 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMonet
47% · 75 games55% · 53 games
Templar AssassinGabbi
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorWhite丶Album
59% · 38 games36% · 37 games
BatriderArmel
Batrider
Broodmother
BroodmotherXxs
46% · 27 games56% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerBok
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoBoKa
52% · 61 game45% · 116 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressLaNm
51% · 106 games49% · 20 games
Winter WyvernBoomy
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction missed14:25
Team Aster 51%TNC Predator 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
54% · 52 games51% · 84 games
UrsaGabbi
Ursa
Puck
PuckWhite丶Album
43% · 142 games45% · 118 games
TinyArmel
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXxs
56% · 41 game50% · 38 games
MagnusBok
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressLaNm
59% · 61 game49% · 31 game
WarlockBoomy
Warlock
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
44% · 12 games50% · 37 games
Winter WyvernTims
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultTNC Predator 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3