WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
407 picks · 214 bans
Mars
404 picks · 632 bans
Puck
390 picks · 976 bans
Grimstroke
365 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 200 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 222 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 212 bans
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:17
Alliance 21%LGD Gaming 79%
The model gave 79% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:43.
Game 2prediction correct15:29
Alliance 21%LGD Gaming 79%
The model gave 79% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 79%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2