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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
81%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
88%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
77%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 223 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
408 picks · 641 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 992 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
370 picks · 356 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 198 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
311 picks · 222 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 216 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 378 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Team Spirit 64%Team Liquid 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
42% · 11 games48% · 47 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Puck
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 176 games50% · 56 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
49% · 86 games56% · 115 games
Centaur Warrunnerqojqva
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
58% · 54 games52% · 113 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Lion
LionMiposhka
44% · 128 games45% · 124 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1