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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
88%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
77%

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 11 games
45%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 9 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 640 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
404 picks · 224 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 992 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
370 picks · 356 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
356 picks · 198 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 221 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 216 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 378 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:49
Team Spirit 57%TNC Predator 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 1:04:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
57% · 146 games43% · 222 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 255 games47% · 91 game
UrsaGabbi
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
53% · 47 games48% · 65 games
Dragon KnightBok
Dragon Knight
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
61% · 91 game49% · 135 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
51% · 71 game43% · 97 games
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct41:14
Team Spirit 56%TNC Predator 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
41% · 92 games53% · 69 games
Dragon KnightGabbi
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 51 game46% · 73 games
LinaArmel
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
52% · 119 games58% · 36 games
VenomancerBok
Venomancer
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
40% · 51 game54% · 142 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionMiposhka
47% · 170 games54% · 163 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2