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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
74%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 636 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 991 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 221 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
373 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 193 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
308 picks · 219 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
LGD Gaming 61%Evil Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:52.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
LGD Gaming 61%Evil Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 61%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2