WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 18 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Dy · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
402 picks · 633 bans
Lion
398 picks · 223 bans
Puck
398 picks · 994 bans
Grimstroke
373 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
307 picks · 218 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:26
beastcoast 33%Vici Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 42:12.
Game 2prediction correct44:10
beastcoast 33%Vici Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 28:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 67%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2