?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 11 games
45%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 8 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 6 games
67%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
74%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 633 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 223 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 994 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
373 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 192 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
307 picks · 218 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:39
TNC Predator 34%LGD Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGabbi
41% · 70 games46% · 79 games
BloodseekerAme
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckArmel
53% · 239 games53% · 187 games
Death ProphetNothingToSay
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierTims
53% · 114 games53% · 114 games
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusBok
46% · 28 games55% · 131 game
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireBoomy
43% · 107 games55% · 47 games
Winter WyvernXinQ
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct27:41
TNC Predator 33%LGD Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingGabbi
46% · 76 games48% · 41 game
AxeAme
Axe
Razor
RazorArmel
60% · 52 games57% · 52 games
Templar AssassinNothingToSay
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingBok
46% · 48 games43% · 74 games
LeshracFaith_bian
Leshrac
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTims
51% · 111 games52% · 140 games
PhoenixXinQ
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBoomy
53% · 84 games45% · 64 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 78%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2