BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:3series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lion
Hyde · 10 games
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 10 games
Marssignature
Fbz · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Clockwerksignature
Q · 9 games
Lionsignature
Q · 8 games
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
Elder Titan
LionaX · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
401 picks · 635 bans
Lion
399 picks · 222 bans
Puck
398 picks · 993 bans
Grimstroke
373 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
305 picks · 218 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 216 bans
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
BOOM Esports 43%Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMikoto
JuggernautJaCkky
MorphlingDreamocel
TinyFearless
MarsFbz
ClockwerkQ
Shadow ShamanHyde
LionLionaX
PhoenixKhezcute
Game 2prediction correct36:29
BOOM Esports 44%Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 1:15:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritMikoto
JuggernautJaCkky
UrsaDreamocel
KunkkaFearless
MarsFbz
MiranaQ
SnapfireHyde
Ancient ApparitionLionaX
AbaddonKhezcute
Game 3prediction correct25:36
BOOM Esports 43%Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerDreamocel
SpectreJaCkky
PuckMikoto
TinyFearless
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
ClockwerkQ
Nyx AssassinHyde
GrimstrokeLionaX
LionKhezcute
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 61%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3