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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 28 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 22 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 11 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
30%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 635 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 995 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 221 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
304 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 216 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 375 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
LGD Gaming 71%Team Liquid 29%
The model gave 71% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNothingToSay
61% · 42 games51% · 37 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
45% · 19 gameslittle data
Lone Druidqojqva
Lone Druid
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
60% · 26 games42% · 14 games
PugnaSumaiL
Pugna
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
51% · 77 games38% · 104 games
TinyTaiga
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
59% · 62 games47% · 71 game
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct36:9
LGD Gaming 69%Team Liquid 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
50% · 71 game52% · 43 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Ursa
UrsaAme
47% · 57 games54% · 106 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
46% · 163 games47% · 66 games
Dark Seerqojqva
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixXinQ
52% · 104 games53% · 46 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
49% · 51 game50% · 185 games
Earth SpiritTaiga
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 83%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2