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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 16 games
81%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 219 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 993 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 634 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
303 picks · 215 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 216 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 375 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:17
Vici Gaming 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:42.
Game 2prediction missed32:17
Vici Gaming 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2