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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
30%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 9 games
22%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 9 games
44%

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 11 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 9 games
89%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 8 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 991 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 218 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 634 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
372 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
302 picks · 213 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 218 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 375 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:42
Team Liquid 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSumaiL
52% · 42 games51% · 48 games
Faceless VoidiLTW
Faceless Void
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
51% · 35 games48% · 42 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Sand King
Sand Kingqojqva
52% · 40 games47% · 47 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaTaiga
53% · 87 games47% · 122 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireiNSaNiA
47% · 93 games56% · 38 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Team Liquid 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
42% · 75 games49% · 74 games
UrsaiLTW
Ursa
Omniknight
OmniknightmiCKe
little data58% · 56 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerqojqva
50% · 66 games43% · 44 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
55% · 56 games49% · 49 games
Treant ProtectorKuroKy
Treant Protector
Snapfire
SnapfireiNSaNiA
53% · 76 games49% · 50 games
IoGH
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2