?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 15 games
73%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
88%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 991 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 218 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 636 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
372 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 189 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
301 picks · 213 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 220 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 374 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:19
Vici Gaming 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 48:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusapoyoyo
55% · 75 games46% · 53 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckOri
46% · 300 games56% · 197 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Doom
DoomELeVeN
54% · 61 game43% · 66 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
50% · 85 games48% · 144 games
PhoenixMira
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
54% · 175 games46% · 236 games
LionMiposhka
Lion
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Vici Gaming 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
62% · 10 games49% · 36 games
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
57% · 49 games41% · 121 game
Death ProphetTORONTOTOKYO
Death Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracELeVeN
56% · 69 games45% · 23 games
KunkkaCollapse
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPyw
56% · 48 games43% · 101 game
TinyMira
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDy
55% · 121 game46% · 16 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2