WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 991 bans
Lion
396 picks · 218 bans
Mars
389 picks · 636 bans
Grimstroke
372 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 189 bans
Tiny
301 picks · 213 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 220 bans
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
Evil Geniuses 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 35:30.
Game 2prediction missed34:37
Evil Geniuses 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 48:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 58%
Accuracy by game0 of 2