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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 4 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 10 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 214 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 996 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 640 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
371 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
302 picks · 211 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 374 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:41
Motivate.Trust Gaming 59%BOOM Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 52:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
50% · 91 game48% · 59 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritFearless
43% · 70 games39% · 15 games
Chaos KnightDreamocel
Chaos Knight
Mirana
MiranaQ
53% · 80 games53% · 72 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLionaX
51% · 115 games51% · 86 games
Ancient ApparitionKhezcute
Ancient Apparition
54% · 124 games
TuskHyde
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed16:22
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%BOOM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautJaCkky
55% · 172 games48% · 49 games
Phantom LancerDreamocel
Phantom Lancer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFearless
56% · 238 games49% · 264 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQ
52% · 229 games51% · 240 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Oracle
OracleLionaX
43% · 174 games50% · 94 games
SnapfireKhezcute
Snapfire
44% · 166 games
TuskHyde
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed18:30
Motivate.Trust Gaming 60%BOOM Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkJaCkky
43% · 30 games53% · 63 games
MorphlingMikoto
Morphling
Riki
RikiFearless
44% · 41 game47% · 29 games
BristlebackDreamocel
Bristleback
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
48% · 122 games56% · 103 games
PuckFbz
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireLionaX
52% · 168 games55% · 116 games
LionKhezcute
Lion
47% · 50 games
TuskHyde
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 66%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3