BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
REKONIXloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 30 games
Axesignature
33 · 26 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 21 game
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
Tusksignature
dalul · 10 games
Razorsignature
Fbz · 8 games
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
591 picks · 925 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 415 bans
Centaur Warrunner
493 picks · 638 bans
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 654 bans
Shadow Demon
430 picks · 937 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 647 bans
Mars
384 picks · 528 bans
Warlock
376 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:34
Tundra Esports 75%REKONIX 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:12:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
WindrangerTraVins
SlarkPure~
TidehunterFbz
Batrider33
KunkkainYourdreaM
TinyAri
Shadow Demondalul
MiranaWhitemon
Faceless VoidVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 90%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1